价值型投资在中国证券市场上的有力证据

本文给出了1994年至2005年间价值型投资在中国A股市场中的有力证据。Fama—MacBeth回归表明在中国A股市场中存在着显著的市盈率和市净率溢价，1994年至2005年中牛市和熊市的滚动策略显示了我国A股市场中的价值效应，并且风险和收益之间基本上呈现出收益大、风险大的特征。本文的实证研究结果将有助于中小投资者以及机构投资者的长期投资决策。     

中国互助游的现状及发展策略研究

网络社区的发展,旅游需求的多元化,催生了一种全新的旅游方式——互助游。根据网络调查的结果分析了互助游的概念内涵和特征,互助游客的旅游行为特征及发展互助游的障碍,在此基础上总结网络调查结果提出部分发展策略,以期引导互助旅游的健康发展。     

电子商务中的信息安全及其防护技术的研究

随着电子商务的发展,其安全问题就越突出,同时信息安全也越受到关注。本文从数据传输过程和电子结算过程两个方面来分析电子商务发展中的信息安全问题,针对这些问题,归纳并提出了一些信息安全防护的方法。     

构建与自然相和谐的商业机制——生态商业设想

商业活动破坏生态环境的根本原因是交易双方的主观不自律和市场机制固有的弊端。商家总是将环境成本外溢掉,而现行的市场机制又不能反映生态学的真理,在环保问题上存在着弊端,因此设计新的商业体系,发展生态商业势在必行,而加强绿色管理、征收绿色税费则是生态商业的制度保证。     

基于竞争力的国有企业管理平台研究

国有企业既作为"经济人"又作为"社会人",在担负社会责任的同时,还需要具备超越竞争对手和超越自身不断创新的竞争能力.管理能力作为企业竞争的系统能力之一,是企业必须注重培养的一种竞争能力.基于节约管理过程成本的管理平台研究对探讨培育管理视角的国有企业竞争能力具有重要的意义,人本管理理念、现代企业制度、以产业目标组合的团队分工和企业业务流程的信息管理系统是当代有效管理平台的规律性特征.     

试论现阶段电子商务的交易安全技术

随着信息技术日新月异的发展，人类正在进入以网络为主的信息时代，基于Intemet开展的电子商务已逐渐成为人们进行商务活动的新模式。但电子商务的安全问题变得越来越突出，建立一个安全、便捷的电子商务应用环境，关键在于保证整个商务活动中信息的安全性，使基于Intemet的电子交易方式与传统交易方式一样安全可靠。电子商务安全包括计算机网络安全和商务交易安全。商务交易安全主要是通过加密技术、安全机制、安全协议进行保证的。     

Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model

Does the search and matching model fit aggregate U.S. labor market data? While the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis, recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data. This paper aims to answer two questions: (i) Does the model fit the data, and, if so, on what dimensions? (ii) Does the data “fit” the model, i.e. what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model?The analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions, though not on all. This includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables, the negative co-variation of unemployment and vacancies, and the behavior of the worker job finding rate. A key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate. The latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job-worker match.The paper offers a workable, empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics.     

Balanced-budget rules: Chaos and deterministic sunspots

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe [11] illustrate that a balanced-budget rule can lead to aggregate instability. In particular, under such a rule it is possible for a steady state to be locally indeterminate, and therefore sunspot equilibria are possible. In this paper, I extend their analysis to investigate the possibility of chaotic equilibria under a balanced-budget rule. A global analysis reveals Euler equation branching which means that the dynamics going forward are generated by a differential inclusion of the form . Each branch alone will not imply interesting dynamics. However, by switching between the branches, I show that the existence of Euler equation branching in an arbitrarily small neighborhood of a steady state implies topological chaos in the sense of Devaney on a compact invariant set with non-empty interior (the chaos is “thick”). Moreover, the chaos is robust to small C¹ perturbations. This branching under a balanced-budget rule occurs independently of the local uniqueness of the equilibrium around the steady state(s).     

Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports

This paper applies smooth transition models to capture the nonlinear behavior in the imports data of six major European economies and to assess whether such nonlinearities are related to business cycle asymmetries. Two classes of switch between regimes are considered: endogenously determined transition that assumes nonlinearities are generated by idiosyncratic components specific to foreign trade, and exogenous transition based on GDP growth as a more direct indicator of the cyclical state of the economy. The results support the proposition that the dynamics of imports are nonlinear. In Belgium, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom, regimes change over the business cycle, while in Germany and Italy the switch between regimes is endogenous. National characteristics play a role in defining the position of extreme regimes, the smoothness of the transition, and local dynamics within each state.Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Lisbon, Portugal, March 10–14, 2004) and at the VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Vigo, Spain, June 3–5, 2004). The authors thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?

Abstract. This paper deals with a critical assessment of the ‘non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an easy‐to‐use analytical instrument: the possibility of a non‐vertical Phillips curve, the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, and the (mis‐)measurement of important variables, cointegration issues and a time variability of the NAIRU. A new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany using direct measures of inflationary expectations. However, by any method, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.